2020.11.23 Quantitative approaches to the interwar economic crisis: the example of Greece
The upcoming meeting of November 23rd incorporates in the seminar’s thematic the quantitative elaboration of the Greek interwar crisis; this analysis it is attempted through the usage of national accounting sources, as it is implemented within the framework of the Research Program. In addition, the explanation of the 1930’s economic crisis through the theory of economic cycles constitutes a broader -beyond the Greek- model and eventually correlates the past experiences to today’s recession.
Seminars Organization: Catherine Brégianni,
Technical Support: Theofanis Salappas
Antonis Antoniou, Researcher TransMonEA project.
For a serial history of interwar public finances: series building and data evaluations, with an emphasis on public expenditure
In 1923 Greece emerged from a ten-year war. The deficits as recorded in the Accounts of the period are closely linked to the war adventures of the Greek State that ended in 1922. It is obvious that military expenditure created important deficit as demonstrated in the 1923’s national accounts.
The deficits of the following years, as recorded in the national accounts, are linked to the budgetary difficulties associated with the financial crisis of 1929-32. The economic and political priorities of the period 1923-1939 helped to keep military and public debt expenditure high. In the early 1930s, the high level of public debt spending showed the strong dependence of public finances on State’s borrowing capacity. The widening of central government’s and public sector deficits in general exacerbated financial difficulties. These parameters will be analyzed through quantitative data on public expenditure, as they emerge from the national accounting sources, mainly of the years 1923-1935.
Due to the economic crisis of the early 1930s, in Greece rising prices, declining industrial activity and declining international trade also led to a further deterioration in living conditions.
Lefteris Tsoulfidis, Professor, University of Macedonia, Department of Economics.
Greek economy, Great Depression and Kondratiev’s cycles. An overview of the TransMonEA Research Project’s quantitative data.
The presentation starts with a short introduction to Kondratiev's cycles and argues that the world economy in the interwar period found itself in the downturn of a long cycle that had already started by the end of WWI. The fundamentals of major economies were in a bad shape. We show that in the US economy the fall in profitability and the stagnation of the mass of real profits preceded the collapse of the stock market in 1929 and the depression of the 1930s. The discussion continues with the economic and political situation in the case of the Greek economy and how she was affected by the depression.
For this purpose, the available economic data from all sources are utilized to show the severity of the depression as well as the salient features of the Greek economy during this turbulent interwar time period. From the discussion and analysis, some useful conclusions follow which may shed more light on the currently lasting great recession and the associated with it debt problems of the Greek economy.
VIDEO OF SEMINAR: https://youtu.be/By5rZfQHSkQ